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The stock market’s indomitable run to continued record highs despite fears about trade wars, real wars and a recession still has not been enough to lure most investors off the sidelines and into stocks.
This suggests the bull market may still have some room to run.
Investment flow data shows that individual investors were largely net sellers of equities in 2019, even as corporate buybacks helped push the market to record levels. The lack of widespread participation suggests that the market hasn’t hit a moment of euphoria or “blow-off top” that often precedes a pullback. That will only happen when these investors finally capitulate and flow back into stocks on fear of missing out on more gains.
With the market “trading at fresh all-time highs, the investor participation has been light, and the bear capitulation is likely to have legs,” JP Morgan strategists said in a note to clients on Monday.
There appears to be no change in that pattern as the calendar turns to 2020. Data from Bank of America Securities shows $550 million net outflow for the bank’s clients during the first week of the year. The same data showed that the clients were net buyers of equities in 2019, but that was driven almost entirely by corporate buybacks. Individual investors were the biggest net sellers.
The S&P 500 was up more than 28% last year. This year, it has overcome fears of a U.S. conflict with Iran to reach yet another record.
Yet all this time, investors have preferred to play it safe.
Andrew Folsom, senior investment analyst at Wells FargoInvestment Institute, said that 2019 also saw the lowest level of inflows for exchange traded funds in five years. Large-cap blend ETFs were the most popular, Folsom said, but even those buying into the equity market were more focused on defensive positions.
“Even when it came to large-cap blend, investors had a big demand for low volatility and dividend paying large cap blend ETFs,” Folsom said. Investors did start to move away from the low volatility ETFs over the last few months but the dividend yield ETFs were still popular, Folsom said.
The low demand for equities pairs with measures of sentiment that show investors as cautious. The most recent report from the American Association of Individual Investors had 37.2% of investors saying they were bullish, below the 38% historical average.
Energy and materials saw the biggest non-buyback inflows last year, according to Bank of America, despite ETF outflows. Financials were the biggest source of outflows in ETFs last year, Folsom said.
Overall, investments have been pulled out of cyclical stocks and into defensive stocks and bonds, according to JP Morgan.
“Despite equities being the best asset class last year, money has flowed out of equity funds, and into bonds and cash,” JP Morgan strategists said.