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China’s economy will bounce back from the coronavirus and grow 15% in the second quarter on a quarter-on-quarter, annualized basis, JPMorgan Chase’s Joseph Lupton told CNBC on Wednesday.
Lupton, a global economist for the bank, said on “Squawk Box” he is projecting negative 4% growth for the first quarter, when the coronavirus outbreak brought much of China’s economy to a halt.
It’s not just looking at things still depressed. It’s looking at where the bottom is and are we starting to march our way upward? Lupton said.
Lupton said 15% quarter-on-quarter annualized growth could be possible, in part, by the depths of the first-quarter decline. “If you get a rebound that’s happening, even if you’re still down 30%, if you were down 50%, that’s a 20 percentage point move that actually starts to impact growth not just in the second quarter but even in the late first quarter,” he said.
Lupton said he also projects increased fiscal stimulus from China’s central bank, aiding the country’s ability to recover economically.
Lupton’s comments come after two down days for global stock indexes as the coronavirus outbreak grows outside of mainland China, where the majority of cases and deaths have been concentrated.
Investors are grappling with the potential global economic effects of the virus, which has disrupted supply chains in China as factories shut down and workers stay home.
Over the weekend, the International Monetary Fund said it was cutting its growth outlook for China’s economy by .4% to 5.6%.
In our current baseline scenario, announced policies are implemented and China’s economy would return to normal in the second quarter. As a result, the impact on the world economy would be relatively minor and short-lived,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in a statement.
But we are also looking at more dire scenarios where the spread of the virus continues for longer and more globally, and the growth consequences are more protracted,
(Sources IMF, CNBC)
Why Invest in Emerging Markets?
Emerging markets offer investors some of the best long-term growth opportunities, but the risk and volatility can be high.
The risks can be reduced, however, with proper analysis. And the volatility can present amazing entry points for disciplined investors.